Piercing Veil · GAUNTLET report · Detects anti-trend signals hidden in noise · short

Attempt · f943756f

Detects anti-trend signals hidden in noise · short · hold 5

FAILED AT TRIAL 2: EFFECT · did not survive the Gauntlet

Trials

TRIAL 1

Leakage PASS

next-open entry; trailing indicators; adjusted bars

bar: no lookahead
structural: indicators use bars <= decision bar; entry at the following open; verified by tests/test_leak.py

TRIAL 2

Effect FAIL

0.0246

bar: 0.03
out-of-sample information coefficient, sign-oriented, overlap-corrected

TRIAL 3

Costs FAIL

{
"sharpe_at_declared_costs": -1.072,
"sharpe_at_2x_costs": -1.509
}

bar: {"sharpe_at_declared_costs": 0.5, "sharpe_at_2x_costs": 0.0}
declared 20 bp round trip; must stay >= 0.5 and remain positive at 2x

TRIAL 4

Luck FAIL

{
"p_vs_luck": 0.6932,
"q_storey_bh": 1.0,
"deflated_sharpe": 0.0,
"ideas_tried_declared": 380,
"history_runs": 22
}

bar: {"p_vs_luck": 0.05, "q_storey_bh": 0.1, "deflated_sharpe": 0.9}
matched-random and circular-shift nulls; FDR across the submitter's run history; Deflated Sharpe vs best-of-N worthless strategies

TRIAL 5

Tuning PASS

n/a

bar: n/a
no tunable parameters (signal_csv) or fast mode; tuning risk is carried by Trial 4's ideas_tried

TRIAL 6

Stability FAIL

{
"fold_consistency": 0.0,
"drop_one_year_positive_fraction": 0.0,
"years": {
"2016": false,
"2017": false,
"2018": false,
"2019": false,
"2020": false,
"2021": false,
"2022": false,
"2023": false,
"2024": false,
"2025": false,
"2026": false
}
}

bar: {"fold_consistency": 0.6, "drop_one_year_positive_fraction": 0.8}
walk-forward folds must agree in sign; removing any single year must not flip the result

TRIAL 7

Evidence FAIL

{
"enough_evidence": 4271,
"enough_independent_evidence": 1061.0,
"not_one_episode": -0.00515,
"enough_episodes": 855,
"episode_consistency": 0.368
}

bar: {"enough_evidence": 250, "enough_independent_evidence": 60.0, "not_one_episode": 0.0, "enough_episodes": 15, "episode_consistency": 0.55}
observations, independent observations, episodes, not carried by one episode

TRIAL 8

Forward PENDING

pending

bar: 90 days live-forward agreement
cannot be passed at submission; badge turns fully green only after forward probation

SPY · 2016-01-04 → 2026-10-30

━ strategy┄ buy & hold

entries	days in mkt	total ret	B&H ret	Sharpe	B&H Sharpe	max DD	IC	p luck	p shift	DSR
1352	1413	-75.12%	+342.77%	-1.317	0.878	-76.73%	0.0363	0.529	0.538	0.0

fold	entries	Sharpe	return
2016-01-04 → 2018-09-13	276	-1.02	-16.40%
2018-09-14 → 2021-05-28	379	-1.791	-44.14%
2021-06-01 → 2024-02-13	326	-1.263	-31.73%
2024-02-14 → 2026-10-30	371	-1.095	-21.97%

QQQ · 2016-01-04 → 2026-10-30

━ strategy┄ buy & hold

entries	days in mkt	total ret	B&H ret	Sharpe	B&H Sharpe	max DD	IC	p luck	p shift	DSR
1446	1470	-81.18%	+582.50%	-1.104	0.911	-83.16%	0.0088	0.407	0.454	0.0

fold	entries	Sharpe	return
2016-01-04 → 2018-09-13	321	-0.617	-17.02%
2018-09-14 → 2021-05-28	397	-1.267	-42.51%
2021-06-01 → 2024-02-13	367	-1.411	-43.49%
2024-02-14 → 2026-10-30	361	-1.005	-30.19%

IWM · 2016-01-04 → 2026-10-30

━ strategy┄ buy & hold

entries	days in mkt	total ret	B&H ret	Sharpe	B&H Sharpe	max DD	IC	p luck	p shift	DSR
1357	1388	-72.66%	+191.00%	-0.794	0.552	-74.46%	0.0286	0.671	0.693	0.0

fold	entries	Sharpe	return
2016-01-04 → 2018-09-13	322	-0.767	-18.72%
2018-09-14 → 2021-05-28	364	-0.965	-38.94%
2021-06-01 → 2024-02-13	294	-0.071	-5.40%
2024-02-14 → 2026-10-30	377	-1.443	-41.78%

Registered spec (hashed before testing)

{"costs_bps_round_trip":20.0,"direction":"short","entry":{"score_threshold":0.08333333333333333},"exit":{"hold_bars":5},"ideas_tried":380,"kind":"signal_csv","name":"Detects anti-trend signals hidden in noise \u00b7 short \u00b7 hold 5","signal_sha256":"dfb6c3741bc966e55e8b9acb634056b4dbe572ba68f65af5d8416c27a854477b","timeframe":"1Day","universe":["SPY","QQQ","IWM"]}